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☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ 'The Fed is giving us a gift by keeping rates high,' says Greenwich Wealth's Vahan Janjigian
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'The Fed is giving us a gift by keeping rates high,' says Greenwich Wealth's Vahan JanjigianVahan Janjigian, CIO of Greenwich Wealth Management, Marc Giannoni, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential for rate cuts, outlooks on economic data, and more.

Persons: Janjigian, Marc Giannoni, Steve Liesman Organizations: Greenwich, Greenwich Wealth Management, Barclays

☆ Remember that Versace dress Jennifer Garner wore in ‘13 Going on 30"?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( Marie Lodi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

DeSanto accessorized the dress with colorful Swarovski crystal jewelry by Tarina Tarantino, including a blue butterfly statement necklace. Columbia Pictures/Everett CollectionDecades later, the dress has become a beloved artifact for nostalgic rom-com fans and modern fashion enthusiasts alike. “(Garner) put it on, we got her all dolled up, she went to dance, and we moved on,” she said. DeSanto also credits director Gary Winick, who died in 2011, for the film’s fashion sense. As DeSanto points out, “13 Going on 30” is a story about a young woman coming into herself — and how, more than anything, it’s important just to be yourself.

Persons: —, Jenna Rink, Gilson nightgown, baguette, Susie DeSanto, Jennifer Garner, Miu Miu, Prada, Ralph Lauren, Roberto Cavalli, Versace, ” DeSanto, “ I’d, Giovanni Giannoni, Jenna, partygoers, Michael Jackson’s, — Versace, DeSanto, Tarina Tarantino, Tarantino, Marc Jacobs’s, — she’s, ”, “ It’s, Betsey Johnson tutus, Christa B, Allen, Ariana Grande, wasn’t, weren’t, “, Garner, Stella McCartney, Alberta Ferretti, Mark Ruffalo, Jen, we’re, I’ve, Gary Winick, Gary, ” Winick, Mark Ruffalo’s Organizations: CNN, Fairchild, Penske Media, Columbia Pictures, Everett Locations: Manhattan, lockstep, Barney’s, Italy, Etsy, Alberta, “, New York

☆ Sam Smith opens Vivienne Westwood’s Fall-Winter 2024 show in Paris
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Leah Dolan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The discombobulating outfit was, in fact, the opening look of Vivienne Westwood’s Fall-Winter 2024 show in Paris — a collection that has proved divisive online. “Vivienne Westwood will be turning in her grave watching Sam Smith in this get up,” wrote one disgruntled fan on X. While many online lamented how Kronthaler’s latest season has “defiled” and “tainted” Westwood’s fashion reputation. The 1990s era of Vivienne Westwood was defined by shape and silhouette, as demonstrated here with Linda Evangelista walking the Fall-Winter 1995 show in Paris. Kronthaler's first solo show for Vivienne Westwood at Paris Fashion Week felt more aligned with the brand's popular 90s silhouettes.

Persons: Sam Smith, trudging, fanny, Mel Gibson’s, Vivienne Westwood’s, Andreas Kronthaler, —, Pascal Le Segretain, Vivienne Westwood, Alexander McQueen, John Galliano, Gen, ”, Linda Evangelista, PL, Kronthaler, Kate Moss, “, Vivienne Westwood's, Giovanni Giannoni, Bella Hadid, Kronthaler's Organizations: CNN, Westwood, PL Gould, Vogue, Penske Media, Paris Fashion, Financial Times Locations: Paris, Sharpie

☆ How Google lost its way
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Hugh Langley | Lara O'Reilly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +17 min

Just two months after Google launched Gemini, its flashy new AI model, the company revealed that it had already built a better version. AdvertisementThen, days later, Google scrambled to explain why its image generation tool spit out racially inaccurate depictions of historical figures. Users have long bemoaned — and researchers recently found — a decline in the quality of Google Search results. The fact that Google is not far and away the self-driving-car leader, it's, like, a total joke," the former Google director said, adding that the problem of Google's lost supremacy is "maybe impossible to solve, frankly." Google now is reminiscent of the Steve Ballmer-era Microsoft, which missed the smartphone, search, and cloud waves and was overtaken by Apple, Google, and Amazon.

Persons: OpenAI, Sora, Sam Altman, Sundar Pichai's, Pichai, —, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Lea Suzuki, Getty Brin, Page, Google, Googlers, Axel Springer, Diane von Furstenberg, Giovanni Giannoni, Michael Avrukin, Vuk Valcic, wouldn't, Patrick Mork, Eric Lehman, Lehman, ChatGPT, Caesar Sengupta, Sengupta, Alexa, Google's, Steve Ballmer, Satya Nadella, Hugh Langley, Lara O'Reilly Organizations: Google, Hollywood, Industry, San Francisco Chronicle, Business, Penske Media, Microsoft, Amazon, The New York Times, Oracle, YouTube, Apple, IBM, Meta Locations: Silicon Valley, Silicon, —

☆ Milan Fashion Week Fall-Winter 2024: The trends that matter
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Scarlett Conlon | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Milan CNN —Gimmicks were gone at the latest Milan runways — which concluded yesterday — with designers instead striking a more serious note that encouraged investment buying. Julianne Moore, A$AP Rocky and Salma Hayek front row at the Bottega Veneta fashion show during the Milan Fashion Week. Jacopo Raule/Getty Images1980s reduxRelegated as the style decade that people preferred to forget, the 1980s is slowly but surely starting to pop up on the radar. Jacopo Raule/Getty ImagesEven at MaxMara, famed for its trademark camel, creative director Ian Griffiths went in a deliberately different direction to focus on silhouette over shade. Jacopo Raule/Getty ImagesDark colors also dominated at Giorgio Armani this season.

Persons: Milan, Miuccia Prada, Raf Simons, Donatella Versace, ”, Julianne Moore, Rocky, Salma Hayek, Daniele Venturelli, Giorgio Armani, Bottega Veneta’s Matthieu Blazy, ” Franken, Franken, Jonas Gustavsson, Matthieu Blazy, Victor Virgile, Blazy “, Massimo Giorgetti —, Truman Capote’s “, —, knitwear, Jacopo Raule, Jil Sander, stilettos, Matteo Tamburini, Kim Jones, Karl Lagerfeld, Leigh Bowery, Judy, Julia, Versace, Anne Hathaway, Gina di Bernardo —, Aldo Fallai’s, Prince, Ferragamo, Tom Ford, Giovanni Giannoni, Ian Griffiths, “ We’re, we’re, Marco M, Gigi Hadid, Solange Knowles, Jacopo M, Matthieu, Aitor Rosas Sune, WWD, Hari Nef, Riccardo Giordano, Sipa Cate Blanchett, Gabriel Bouys Organizations: Milan CNN, Prada, Bottega Veneta, Blazy, Truman Capote’s “ La, Truman Capote’s “ La Cote Basque, Getty, Dolce, Diesel, Milan Locations: Milan, —, Bottega, MSGM, Truman Capote’s “ La Cote, London, “ London, MaxMara, Avavav, AFP

☆ London Fashion Week: Highlights from the Fall-Winter 2024 runways
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Fiona Sinclair Scott | Leah Dolan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

Ben BroomfieldFaux furFleecy, fuzzy or fine: Faux fur was a key textile on the London runways. Ben Broomfield/Ben Broomfield @photobenphotoRobyn Lynch gave the white anorak a romantic silhouette during her Fall-Winter 2024 show. Maja SmiejkowskaStaged in a Gothic Revival church in East London, Dilara Findikoglu's show was a twisted fantasy. Dilara FindikogluSinead O'Dwyer, whose collection was inspired by a not-so-appropriate take on office wear, led the charge on diverse casting this season. Chris YatesModel on the runway at Molly Goddard RTW Fall 2024 as part of London Ready to Wear Fashion Week held at the Cecil Sharp House on February 17, 2024 in London, England.

Persons: scrappy, Vivienne Westwood, Alexander McQueen, John Galliano, Jonathon Ferris, John Malkovich, Maximilian Raynor’s, Harris Reed, Victoriana, — Conner Ives, Sinead Gorey —, Ives, Gorey, Maria Callas —, JW Anderson, Jonathan Anderson, ”, Amy Winehouse’s, Lily Cole, Agyness Deyn, Edward Crutchley, Stephen Jones ’ millinery, Molly Goddard’s, ” Goddard, ” Molly Goddard, Ben Broomfield, Broomfield, Simone Rocha, Jean Paul Gaultier, Queen Victoria, Conner Ives, Precious Lee, Sinead Gorey, Johanna Parv, Parv, Daniel Lee, moleskin, Henry Nicholls, Robyn Lynch, Lynch upcycled outerwear, Ben Broomfield @photobenphoto Robyn Lynch, Chris Yates, Naomi Campell, Joe Maher, Daniel Lee's, Filippo Fior, Burberry Erdem, Giovanni Giannoni, Jason Lloyd Evans, Jason Lloyd Evans Harris, Marc Hibbert Jonathan Anderson's, JW Anderson “, ” Anderson, ” JW Anderson, Ben Broomfield Sinead Gorey, Eamonn M . McCormack, Aldama Precious Lee, Maja Smiejkowska, Dilara, Dilara Findikoglu Sinead O'Dwyer, Chris Yates Lottie Moss, Kate Moss's, Sinead O'Dwyer, Molly Goddard RTW, Cecil Sharp, Aitor Rosas Sune, WWD, Rosas Sune, Molly Goddard's frilly, Ahluwalia Organizations: London CNN, Central Saint Martins, Tate, JW, Fashion, Burberry, British Vogue, Jean Paul Gaultier couture, Getty, ., Company, British Museum, Getty Images Locations: London, Tate Britain, East London’s, Paris, AFP, Irish, East London, England, Nigeria

☆ 3 signs the economy is thriving — and 3 red flags to monitor
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Positive labor market data and GDP growth support this, but job opportunities in some sectors are down. Not all job data is positive, with job openings falling from their post-pandemic highs. Below are some of the signs the economy is thriving, as well as some warning signs. Labor market data is mostly positiveThe labor market is still stable despite gradually slowing, Kimbrough said during the forum. "I think the investment side of our economy is going to start to chip away a little bit at the discretionary consumption weight in our economy."

Persons: —, Marc Giannoni, LinkedIn's Karin Kimbrough, Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, Giannoni, Kimbrough, Jerome Powell, Powell, NerdWallet's Elizabeth Renter, Sonders, They're, there’s, there's, — Kimbrough, it’s Organizations: Federal, Service, Barclays, NYU Stern Economic, Labor, Conference, University of Michigan's, Market Committee, Health, New, New York City Housing Locations: York, New York City

☆ Wall Street has adjusted its expectations for when the Fed starts cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have moved out the probability of a March easing from around 90% in recent weeks to a coin-flip in the days leading up to this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to about a 1-in-3 chance Thursday. That's not to say the market still doesn't think the committee will cut rates sharply this year, but any dialing back now probably won't come quite as soon as expected. For the most part, Wall Street commentary showed an expectation that the Fed will cut at least four times this year, likely beginning in either May or June. "As inflation falls, real rates become more restrictive, and we think gaining consensus to cut will be easier." Most of Wall Street expects the FOMC to skip November, as the meeting falls the same week as the U.S. presidential election.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Matthew Luzzetti, FOMC, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Powell, David Mericle, Michael Gapen, Marc Giannoni, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Traders, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Fed, Wall, U.S, Bank of America, Barclays

☆ Paris Couture Week: The most eye-catching looks from the haute couture shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Fiona Sinclair-Scott | Nicole Mowbray | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —How do you begin to talk about something as seemingly frivolous as haute couture fashion against the tumult of today? The bi-annual couture shows in Paris are a showcase of bold ideas from the best fashion designers working today, crafted by some of the world’s most skilled artisans. Practical pockets, but make it Chanel coutureA delicate sheer pocket seen at Chanel's haute couture show. ValentinoWhile there was razzamatazz on the front row courtesy of Stormi Webster, Kylie Jenner’s five-year-old daughter, who made her front row debut, Valentino’s couture collection incarnation was relatively understated. Raw elegance at Maison MargielaJohn Galliano's couture collection for Maison Margiela was fantastical and theatrical, fittingly taking place under the first full moon of the year.

Persons: Chanel, ”, Schiaparelli, Giovanni Giannoni, Jennifer Lopez, Zendaya, Pat McGrath, Pascal Le Segretain, Margaret Qualley, Pieter Mulier, Valentino, Stormi Webster, Kylie Jenner’s, Gaurav Gupta Gaurav, Thomas Samson, Guarav Gupta, Kim Jones, Karl Lagerfeld's, Peter White, Karl Lagerfeld’s, Victor Virgile, Maison, Maison Margiela John Galliano's, Maison Margiela, Gao Jing, John Galliano, Gwendoline Christie, John Galliano's, Martin Margiela, Gwendoline Christie sauntering Organizations: CNN, Paris Couture, Spring, Petit Palais, Maison Margiela, Zuma Press Locations: Paris, Chanel, AFP, Xinhua

☆ Milan Fashion Week: This is what men will be wearing next fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Scarlett Conlon | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

This yellow coat and matching hat channeled fisherman chic at SS Daley. Giovanni Giannoni/WWD/Getty ImagesA seafaring element was evident in the collection at Emporio Armani too. To complement the sleek lines of suits came long coats in fine wool and leather that were part “Bladerunner,” part “Matrix” and part ode to the 1990s. The brooch is back, pinned to lapels at S.S. Daley, Magliano, Emporio Armani and Dolce & Gabbana. Functional, useful and classic, as above at Emporio Armani, were the key themes of the season in Milan.

Persons: Milan, Miuccia Prada, Raf Simons, Simons, officewear, Victor Virgile, ”, Daley, Giovanni Giannoni, Emporio Armani, Steven Stokey Daley, Harry Styles, Silvia Venturini Fendi, Anne, Britain's Princess Anne, Alessandro Levati, ” Fendi, Princess Royal, “, chunky knitwear, Neil Barrett, British Harris, Brunello, —, JW Anderson, Justin Shin, tailcoats, Stefano Gabbana, Domenico Dolce, Gabbana, Stefania D'Alessandro, Sabato de Sarno, Tom Ford, Sabato de, Gucci, Daniele Venturelli, de Sarno, Magliano, Massimo Giorgetti, Franco Albini, Gabanna, Armani Organizations: Milan CNN, Prada, CNN, Balmoral, Gabbana, Gucci, Dolce, Milan Metro, diamante Locations: Milan, British, Florence, Wellington, S.S, Saltburn, Italy

☆ This Louis Vuitton ‘sandwich bag’ costs more than $3000
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Issy Ronald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Carrying lunch into the office from home can be one way to save money — except, perhaps, when it is stored in Pharrell Williams’ Louis Vuitton sandwich bag costing over $3,000. Model Anna Ewers carried the sandwich bag during Pharrell Williams' debut show for Louis Vuitton in Paris in June 2023. But it’s not the first time that Louis Vuitton has drawn inspiration from everyday (and, traditionally, much cheaper) accessories. In its Spring-Summer 2007 collection, the fashion house paid homage to the budget-friendly checkered plastic laundry bags beloved the world over. In 2022, the brand also released a cross-body bag resembling a paint can (complete with metal handle), “decorated with playful references to Louis Vuitton’s heritage.”In 2007, Louis Vuitton paid homage to the humble laundry bag.

Persons: Pharrell Williams, Louis Vuitton, Williams, Anna Ewers, Louis, Giovanni Giannoni, —, it’s, Louis Vuitton’s, Francois Guillot, Virgil Abloh, ”, Marcel Duchamp —, Ashish Gupta, ” “ It’s, ” Gupta, “, Balenciaga Organizations: CNN, Louis Vuitton, West Hollywood, Getty Locations: Paris, Pont, West, AFP

☆ There is not another rate hike left in the cycle, says Evercore's Julian Emanuel
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is not another rate hike left in the cycle, says Evercore's Julian EmanuelJulian Emanuel, Evercore senior managing director, and Marc Giannoni, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how investors should play the stock market, their take on the Federal Reserve and the recent acceleration of economic data.

Persons: Evercore's Julian Emanuel Julian Emanuel, Evercore, Marc Giannoni Organizations: Barclays, Federal Reserve

☆ Everything you need to know about London Fashion Week Spring-Summer 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Leah Dolan | Nicole Mowbray | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

London CNN —London Fashion Week kicked off on Friday in the glow of a sweltering UK heatwave, and concluded on Tuesday after biblical showers and thunderstorms. More famous faces piled into the London fashion scene over the course of the week. Dave Benett/Courtesy BurberryHowever, some controversial collections and marketing choices brought London Fashion Week outside of the industry bubble and into the wider cultural conversation. Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty ImagesErdem's collection was partly inspired by the protected stately home, Chatsworth House, in the North of England. Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty ImagesAshish returned to the London Fashion Week runway after 4 years with a show that was suitably high-octane and glamorous.

Persons: JW Anderson, Erdem, Simone Rocha, Findikoglu, Halpern, Nensi, S.S, Daley, Anna Wintour, Sienna Miller, Jodie Turner, Smith, Princess Eugenie, Kate Winslet, Cole Sprouse, Suki Waterhouse, Charli, Ncuti Gatwa, Alexa Chung, Mo Farah, “, Damon Albarn, Rachel Weiss, Jodie Comer, Kylie Minogue, Burna Boy, Barry Keoghan, Dave Benett, Burberry —, Daniel Lee, —, Mowalola, HARRI, Sam Smith, JW, Kwok, Joe Maher, Crocs, Sinéad O’Dwyer, Molly Goddard, Victor Virgile, Gareth Cattermole, David, David Cronenberg, David Lynch, 16Arlington, Isamaya Ffrench, Jeff Spicer, Richard Quinn, ”, Goddard, Matty Bovan —, Bovan, ” Richard Quinn, Matty Bovan, tulle, Susan Fang, David Koma, David Lee’s Burberry, Giovanni Giannoni, Di Petsa, beading, Susan Fang's, Henry Nicholls, Chet Lo's, Wiktor, Chet Lo, Shane Anthony Sinclair, Stuart Wilson, TOVE, Daniel Lee's, Shutterstock Burberry, Ashish, Poppy Delevingne, Anderson, KNWLS — Organizations: London CNN, London, Burberry, Vogue, JW, Highbury, Fashion, Brit, BFC, Getty, National Theatre, National, Publishing, London's Barbican Center, British Locations: couture, London, North London, Saudi, Hong, Kong, Erdem, AFP, Englishness, Chatsworth House, North, England, Noor

☆ U.S. stocks may start to question economic resilience, says Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO: People are seen on Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 19, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 21 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 will likely struggle to make more headway after rallying almost 14% so far this year as investors start to question the sustainability of the U.S. economy's resilience, Morgan Stanley equity strategists said. One reason is that a "sell-the news" mentality has taken hold following second-quarter earnings, potentially slowing price momentum, said Morgan Stanley strategists, led by Michael Wilson. "While limited in downside magnitude, this recent price action is a change and suggests stocks may be starting to question the sustainability of the economic resiliency we experienced in the first half of the year," said Wilson. Wilson also sees fading tailwinds from excess savings among consumers, which leaves consumer discretionary stocks vulnerable.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Marc Giannoni, Susan Mathew, Saumyadeb Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Asia stutters as China doles out meagre rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's central bank trimmed its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points and left its five-year rate unmoved, a surprise to analysts who had expected cuts of 15 basis points to both. Disappointment at the meagre move saw Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) ease 0.3%, while the Australian dollar took a dip as a liquid proxy for China risk. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, argue there is still scope for investors to add to equity positions. The ascent of the dollar and yields was weighing on gold at $1,887 an ounce , having touched a five-month low last week. Brent was up 38 cents at $85.18 a barrel, while U.S. crude bounced 45 cents to $81.70 per barrel.

Persons: Issei Kato, Fed's Jackson, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Marc Giannoni, Brent, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, China, Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Goldman, U.S, Jackson, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, China, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Atlanta

☆ We expect a downturn in Q1 '24 as student loan repayments kick in, says Barclays' Giannoni
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect a downturn in Q1 '24 as student loan repayments kick in, says Barclays' GiannoniMarc Giannoni, managing director and chief U.S. economist at Barclays, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the economist is still in the higher for longer camp, when the consumer will be impacted by higher rates, and more.

Persons: Marc Giannoni Organizations: Barclays

☆ Wall Street economists say rate hikes are over, even if the Fed won't admit it
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

At least that's the opinion across much of Wall Street, where the money is rising on the likelihood that Wednesday's quarter-point rate hike was the last one before the Fed goes on pause, then ultimately starts cutting. "Powell said that the FOMC will be particularly focused on the inflation data, and we expect the next few [consumer price index] reports to be soft," Mericle wrote. The implied fed funds rate for the December contract is at 5.41%, just above the midpoint of the 5.25%-5% target range following Wednesday's hike. And to be sure, not everyone on the Street thinks the Fed is done this year. The latter mark references Giannoni's belief that the Fed is probably more likely to hike twice more than it is to stop.

Persons: they're, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mericle, Dow Jones, Matthew Luzzetti, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Zentner, That's, he's, Marc Giannoni Organizations: Federal, Traders, CME Group, Gross, Commerce Department, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of America, Citigroup, Barclays Locations: Wall

☆ Wall Street sees the Fed starting to signal toward a recession ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street consensus after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded Wednesday was equally cautious. "We took the broad signals from this meeting as lifting perceptions of recession risks within the Fed," wrote Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. "Powell noted that recent events will certainly not reduce recession risks, even if how much they heighten those risks remains uncertain." The risk from rates Worries remain that more Fed rate hikes will exacerbate banking problems by creating more duration risk. "We expect the FOMC to hike another 25bp in May, bringing the funds rate target range to 5.00-5.25%," wrote Barclays chief U.S. economist Marc Giannoni.

☆ A reading of more than 200,000 jobs added in February would be the Fed's trigger for a big March rate hike, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will likely upsize its March rate hike if the February jobs report shows 200,00 or more jobs added, Barclays said. Investors on Tuesday quickly pushed up the odds the Fed deliver a rate hike of a half-percentage point after downsizing the pace to 25 basis points last month. The February jobs report due Friday is expected to show the world's largest economy added 203,000 jobs, with a steady unemployment rate of 3.4%. The January jobs report trounced expectations with growth of 517,000 jobs. Such moves would put the peak of the Fed's benchmark interest rate at 5.5%-5.75% assuming that after June, the Fed sees sufficient evidence that slowing in employment and wages warrant a pause in rate hikes, Barclays said.

☆ The Fed won't cut interest rates until late 2023 as the US economy continues to look resilient, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Barclays on Tuesday shifted when it sees the Fed starting to cut interest rates in 2023. A shallow recession should start later than Barclays anticipated, leading the investment bank to see rate cuts beginning in November 2023. The Fed will likely push rates to a peak range of 5% to 5.25%. The international investment bank had previously expected rate cuts to start in the third quarter of 2023, sized at 25 basis points. Barclays then projects a February 2023 rate increase of 50 basis points followed by a March hike of a quarter-percentage point to a range of 5% to 5.25%.

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